Banking Solutions · Risk Management · Capital Forecasting

Forecast your capital, steer your CET1 and regulatory trajectory.

Project your CET1 and RWA across multiple years and regulatory scenarios, and plan your capital needs with precision, from baseline through to stressed outcomes.

Intervalle Risk RISK PLATFORM Overview ALM Capital Forecasting Stress Testing Credit Scoring Reports Settings Data synced Real time · 14:32 Capital Forecasting Capital projection · horizon 2026 → 2029 Search a risk, a module… Risk Committee SM Sara Malou Risk Analyst PROJECTED CET1 (T+4) 13.6% +0.8pt vs 2026 PROJECTED RWA €3.2bn +9% / 4 yrs CAPITAL BUFFER +2.1pts above requirement LEVERAGE RATIO 5.4% +0.2pt vs 2026 CET1 ratio projection +0.8pt over horizon target 14.0% requirement 10.5% T0T+1T+2T+3T+4 RWA projection by risk type T0T+1T+2T+3T+4 Credit Market Operational Capital walk €M · 2026 → 2029 430+58−22−18448 OpeningEarningsDividendsRWA chg.Projected Capital plan central scenario YEAR CET1 RWA BUFFER 2026 12.8% €3.2bn +2.3pts 2027 13.0% €3.3bn +2.5pts 2028 13.3% €3.4bn +2.8pts 2029 13.6% €3.5bn +3.1pts
CET1 projectionMulti-scenario
RWA projectionDetailed
Regulatory buffersTracked
Capital planUp to date
Capital forecasting

Capital forecasting, under every scenario.

The Capital Forecasting module projects your capital trajectory — CET1, Tier 1 and total ratio — against evolving RWA and regulatory requirements. Every projection can be replayed under a central, adverse or budget scenario to inform capital decisions.

A module of the Risk Management platform, built on the same data foundation, models and calculation engine as ALM, stress testing and credit scoring.

  • CET1, Tier 1 and total ratio projection
  • RWA projection by risk type
  • Regulatory buffer & leverage ratio tracking
  • Multi-year capital plan & regulatory reporting
A module of the platform

Capital Forecasting is part of Risk Management.

One platform, four modules that share the same data, models and calculation engine. Capital forecasting works hand in hand with ALM, stress testing and credit scoring for a consistent view of balance-sheet risk.

See the platform
Inside the module

Your capital trajectory, panel by panel.

Two views at the heart of the module — the CET1 projection set against target and requirement, and the capital plan backed by the RWA projection.

A

CET1 & buffer projection

The CET1 ratio trajectory over the horizon, framed by the internal target and the regulatory requirement, with the buffer it releases.

CET1 ratio projection HORIZON 2026 → 2029 · CENTRAL SCENARIO Above target CET1 RATIO & BUFFER target 14.0% requirement 10.5% T0T+1T+2T+3T+4 Projected CET1 (T+4)13.6% Buffer+3.1pts
  • CET1 trajectory framed by target & requirement
  • Capital buffer released period by period
  • Central & adverse scenario comparison
B

Capital plan & RWA

The multi-year capital plan — CET1, RWA and buffer by year — backed by the RWA projection by risk type.

Capital plan CET1 · RWA · BUFFER · BY YEAR Up to date YEARCET1RWABUFFER 202612.8%3.2 +2.3pts 202713.0%3.3 +2.5pts 202813.3%3.4 +2.8pts 202913.6%3.5 +3.1pts RWA (€bn) 26272829 Projected capital (2029)€448M Leverage ratio5.4% Credit Market Operational
  • Multi-year capital plan ready for the committee
  • RWA projection by risk type
  • Leverage ratio & projected capital tracked continuously
Features

Capital, projected and planned.

From CET1 projection to regulatory reporting, complete coverage of capital forecasting.

Capital projection (CET1 / Tier 1)

CET1, Tier 1 and total ratio trajectory across multiple years, under regulatory constraints and budget assumptions.

RWA projection

Evolution of risk-weighted assets — credit, market and operational — projected in line with activity and the balance sheet.

Capital planning

Build a multi-year capital plan — earnings, dividends, issuance — with a capital walk and simulated trade-offs.

Buffer analysis

Track conservation, countercyclical and systemic buffers, and the margin released above the overall requirement.

Scenarios & sensitivities

Projections replayed under central, adverse or budget scenarios, with sensitivities to key capital drivers.

Regulatory reporting

Capital adequacy statements and capital projections generated from the risk foundation, ready for audit and the regulator.

What the module delivers

Capital that is anticipated, not endured.

A clear capital trajectory, buffers under control and better-informed allocation decisions.

Readable trajectory

The CET1 projection set against target and requirement, on a single screen.

Buffers under control

The margin above the overall requirement, tracked period by period.

Scenarios on demand

Projections replayed on demand, with no manual rebuild.

Capital plan up to date

A consistent multi-year plan, ready to present to the risk committee.

Informed allocation

Capital trade-offs fed by a detailed RWA view by risk type.

Compliance aligned

Traceable adequacy statements, aligned with prudential requirements.

4 yrs
Capital projection horizon
3
Scenarios replayed on demand
−50%
Capital plan build time
100%
Traceable & auditable projections

Indicative orders of magnitude, varying by context and scope.

Our method

From assumption to capital plan.

A controlled rollout, from data and assumptions through to regulatory reporting.

  1. 1

    Data & assumptions

    Feed the foundation from the core banking system and the warehouse, and frame earnings, balance-sheet and distribution assumptions.

  2. 2

    Modelling

    Project capital and RWA from governed models, consistent with ALM and credit scoring.

  3. 3

    Scenarios

    Run projections under central, adverse and budget scenarios, with sensitivities to key drivers.

  4. 4

    Plan & reporting

    Build the capital plan, report to the risk committee and generate adequacy statements.

The other modules

Explore the other modules.

Capital forecasting draws on the same data and models as ALM, stress testing and credit scoring. Keep exploring.

The banking journey · you are here

Six stages, one shared data foundation.

Six stages of the customer lifecycle — from onboarding to collections and on to a better customer experience — resting on a cross-cutting automation and data foundation that connects and continuously improves them.

Automation, Data & AI — cross-cutting foundation
01 · Acquire

Onboard customers, 100 % digital

From first interaction to account opening: a smooth, compliant onboarding, for individuals and businesses alike.

Learn more

Digital Onboarding

  • eKYC & facial recognition
  • Document verification & sharing
  • Retail & corporate onboarding
  • Electronic signature

Salary domiciliation

  • Income & salary domiciliation
  • Mandate management
  • Approval workflows
  • Tracking & reporting
02 · Operate

The heart of the banking system

Accounts, products, cards, accounting and treasury on the Infosys Finacle suite, implemented and operated by our teams.

Learn more

Accounts & products

  • Account opening & management
  • Product management (savings, deposits…)
  • Card issuing & management
  • Accounting management

Treasury & operations

  • Cash management
  • Operations & back-office
  • Configuration & migration
  • Core optimisation & hardening
03 · Pay

Collect and pay, everywhere

Secure, compliant payment journeys: e-wallet, mobile banking and card switch.

Learn more

Payments & mobile

  • E-Wallet
  • Mobile Banking & Payment
  • Biometric authentication
  • Transfers & QR payments

Card switch

  • Payment Switch
  • Card management & routing
  • Authorisation & clearing
  • PCI DSS compliance
04 · Finance

Credit and risk, end to end

Two dimensions under control: credit risk across the lending lifecycle, and balance-sheet risk (ALM, capital) steered at bank level.

Capital forecasting secures the regulatory capital behind this financing stage.

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Credit lifecycle — credit risk

  • Application & document sharing
  • KYC & PEP screening
  • Credit scoring & lending decision
  • Allocation, disbursement & repayment tracking

Risk Management — balance-sheet risk

  • ALM — asset-liability management
  • Capital forecasting & capital adequacy
  • Stress testing & VaR
  • Regulatory reporting (Basel)
05 · Recover

Recover, then manage disputes

In the event of default, our solution automates the collections process — through to litigation management where needed.

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Collections

  • Segmentation & dunning strategies
  • Automated dunning workflows
  • Multichannel amicable scenarios
  • Payment promise tracking

Litigation & disputes

  • Escalation to litigation
  • Legal case management
  • Traceability & reporting
  • Recovery-rate steering
06 · Retain

Retain and personalise, through data

Data and automation in the service of the relationship: anticipate churn risk and deliver hyper-personalised experiences that lift satisfaction and revenue.

Learn more

Retention & anticipation

  • Proactive churn detection
  • Behavioural scoring
  • Next best action & alerts
  • Automated retention journeys

Personalisation & revenue

  • Personalised offers & services
  • Contextual recommendations
  • Targeted cross-sell & up-sell
  • Satisfaction measurement (NPS)

Planning a capital forecasting project?

Request a demo: we'll walk you through the Capital Forecasting module — CET1, RWA and buffer projection, capital plan — on your ratios and scenarios. Leave us your details and an expert will get back to you.